Today may be Election Day, but Bay County residents are keeping a wary eye on Tropical Storm Rafael.
The county still sits well outside of the National Hurricane Center’s cone of uncertainty. The eastern-most portion of the cone is over Pensacola, more than 90 miles from Panama City proper. Some spaghetti models do forecast a shift to the east; however, none make a direct impact with Bay County.
The National Weather Service forecasting office out of Tallahassee says our forecast area can expect localized flooding, hazardous boating conditions, rip currents and high surf. The agency advises locals to not let their guard down with the forecasted slight shift west in the track, saying its lower confidence than usual and subject to change.
Current forecasts show Bay County getting tropical storm-force winds as early as Thursday morning. The NWS says showers are likely in Panama City Beach on Wednesday with a chance of showers persisting through Friday night. Temperatures are expected to remain in the 70s throughout the week.
There’s currently a rip current advisory in effect in Bay County through Thursday as Rafael makes its way towards the Gulf of Mexico. If current models hold true, the storm shouldn’t make landfall until late this weekend.
Local beaches are flying double red flags today. Two red flags indicate that the water is closed to swimming, as conditions are too dangerous for even the strongest swimmers.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s monitoring station in Panama City shows water levels are about 8 inches above predicted Tuesday morning.
The November storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane while in the Caribbean. It’s moving near Jamaica Tuesday morning and could become a hurricane before moving near or over western Cuba Wednesday.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael
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While current forecasts put the storm moving toward the northern Gulf Coast — and weakening while in the Gulf of Mexico — that doesn’t mean Florida won’t feel any impacts, especially the Keys and southwestern portions of the state.
Elsewhere in the tropics, the National Hurricane Center also is tracking a disturbance in the southwestern Atlantic with a low chance for development. AccuWeather forecasters said it could become a tropical depression or storm this week.
The next named storm of the season will be Sara.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 7 a.m. Tuesday, Nov. 5:
Tropical Storm Rafael: What you should know
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael
Florida impact from Tropical Storm Rafael
“The good news is that while the Rafael may well enter the Gulf as a hurricane mid-week, there is very little chance of the storm reaching land as a hurricane,” said Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.
For the Florida peninsula, Rafael will make its closest approach late Wednesday and Thursday.
“If the storm strengthens more through Wednesday, it is likely to pass a bit closer to Florida, but in all scenarios it should remain well southwest of the Keys,” Truchelut said.
“The main impact of the storm on Florida will be an increase in rain chances between Wednesday and the weekend.”
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday, according to the National Hurricane Center.
➤ Florida hurricane forecast: With Rafael rumblings, storm-stung state should only see rain
Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States during the middle to latter part of the week, according to the National Hurricane Center. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.
A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday over the Keys and southwestern Florida mainland,
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
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Southwestern Atlantic: An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a couple of days.
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Afterward, some slow development of this system is possible during the latter part of the week while it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: low, near 0 percent.
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Formation chance through seven days: low, 20 percent.
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What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
Who is likely to be affected?
Some areas of Florida could feel some impacts, including tropical-storm-force winds, 1-3 inches of rain and even a threat of tornadoes from Tropical Storm Rafael.
➤ Florida hurricane forecast: With Rafael rumblings, storm-stung state should only see rain
AccuWeather meteorologists said the system in the southwestern Atlantic could become a tropical depression or storm as it approaches the Leeward Islands and moves along the northern islands of the Caribbean this week.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared. That advice is particularly important for what is expected to be a very active hurricane season.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.
National Hurricane Center map: What are forecasters watching now?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
Excessive rainfall forecast
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This article originally appeared on The News Herald: Tropical Storm Rafael impacts for Panama City | Updates on Nov. 5, 2024
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