Two systems in the Atlantic basin — Hurricane Rafael and a disturbance northeast of the Leeward Islands — are drenching parts of the Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center. Rafael’s projected path has taken a wild swing to the west and its ultimate destination is still in flux.
After drenching western Cuba and taking out the entire island’s electrical grid, Rafael entered the Gulf of Mexico, still a Category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph. The storm is expected to weaken over the next few days and a mid-level ridge is projected to push Rafael westward towards the Texas-Mexico border.
While landfall in Texas is unlikely, some portions of its coast may see storm surge and coastal flooding.
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Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, meteorologists are watching a trough of low pressure northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The National Hurricane Center said some gradual development is possible toward the end of the week and into the weekend.
AccuWeather meteorologists said the system could develop into a tropical depression or storm as it moves along the northern islands of the Caribbean this week.
The next named storm of the season will be Sara.
Here’s the latest update from the NHC as of 7 a.m. Thursday, Nov. 7:
Hurricane Rafael: What you should know
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the center of the storm. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm is likely to travel outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
See spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Hurricane Rafael
Will Hurricane Rafael hit Texas?
Hurricane Rafael has shifted its path away from Florida and is now heading west into the Gulf of Mexico.
“Once in the Gulf of Mexico, slight differences in Rafael’s intensity and atmospheric steering winds could have a significant impact on its final track,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Bill Deger said.
Rafael’s strong winds are expected to produce rough seas over the Gulf of Mexico late this week and into the early part of the weekend. These swells, from east to west, are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
If Rafael makes landfall, areas to the north and east are likely to see coastal flooding.
U.S. landfall remains unlikely, according to AccuWeather. However, residents around the Gulf of Mexico should watch the storm and its incoming wind gusts.
National Hurricane Center map: What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center include:
Near the Leeward Island: A trough of low pressure just northeast of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the couple of days while it moves westward near the Greater Antilles.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southeastern Bahamas.
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Formation chance through 48 hours: Low, 20 percent.
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Formation chance through seven days: Low, 20 percent.
What do the colored areas on the NOAA map mean?
The hatched areas on a tropical outlook map indicate “areas where a tropical cyclone — which could be a tropical depression, tropical storm or hurricane — could develop,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome.
The colors make it visibly clear how likely a system could develop with yellow being low, orange medium and red high.
The National Hurricane Center generally doesn’t issue tropical advisories until a there is a named storm, but there is an exception.
“If a system is near land and there is potential for development, the National Hurricane Center won’t wait before it issues advisories, even if the system hasn’t become an actual storm. This gives residents time to prepare,” Rhome said.
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When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: Hurricane Rafael turns toward Gulf of Mexico. Is Texas in its path?
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