Polling data expert Nate Silver slammed election forecasts showing a close race between presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump across several states. Silver accused many pollsters of “herding” to ensure their predictions aren’t too far off from other predictions.
“In fact, I kind of trust pollsters less, they all, every time a pollster [says] ‘Oh, every state is just +1, every single state’s a tie,’ No! You’re f—ing herding! You’re cheating! You’re cheating!” said Silver during a Friday episode of his weekly podcast, Risky Business with Nate Silver and Maria Konnikova.
Silver has maintained his prediction that Trump will overtake Harris, 55 percent and 45 percent respectively, to return to the White House.
However, Silver slammed GOP-leaning polling firms for continually putting Trump at an advantage in many states, accusing them of making a prediction that won’t put them “too far on a limb.”
He added, “Your numbers aren’t all going to come out at exactly 1-point leads when you’re sampling 800 people over dozens of surveys. You are lying! You’re putting your f—ing finger on the scale!”
According to Silver, “If a pollster never publishes any numbers that surprises you, then it has no value.”
In a New York Times op-ed, Silver urged not to trust anyone’s gut—not even his. He pointed to Trump’s 2016 win as an example.
“It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s that in 2016 and 2020, pollsters weren’t reaching enough of them,” wrote Silver. “Trump supporters often have lower civic engagement and social trust, so they can be less inclined to complete a survey from a news organization.”
There is also a chance that the presidential race really is just that close, said Silver.
“But look, all seven swing states are still polling within it looks like a point and a half here. It doesn’t take a genius to know that if every swing state is a tie, that the overall forecast is a tie,” said Silver.
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