[rank_math_breadcrumb]

Florida begins issuing tropical storm watch as Tropical Storm Rafael forms in Caribbean

Updated: 05-11-2024, 01.44 AM

Tropical Depression 18 has strengthened into Tropical Storm Rafael, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

A tropical storm watch has been issued for the lower and middle Florida Keys, from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas.

The NHC suspects that Tropical Storm Rafael will continue to intensify and become Hurricane Rafael by Tuesday as it approaches Cuba, where a hurricane watch and tropical storm watch are already in effect.

Meanwhile, the western tip of the Florida Panhandle is teetering directly on the right edge of Rafael’s potential path, according to the National Hurricane Center. AccuWeather has Escambia and Santa Rosa counties just within the tropical eye path.

Tropical Storm Rafael's path as of 4 p.m. Monday. — Tropical Storm Rafael’s path as of 4 p.m. Monday.

Jamaica and Cuba are in the storm’s more immediate path.

“The brewing tropical storm is expected to make a northeastward turn across Jamaica and Cuba this week, bringing heavy downpours and gusty winds to those islands.” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said.

Once the storm treks beyond the northern Caribbean, it could have a few potential paths, which means Floridians living in the western panhandle area should keep an eye on the storm’s development over the next week.

Here’s what to know about Tropical Storm Rafael in the meantime.

Where is Tropical Storm Rafael now?

Tropical Storm Rafael is moving north near 9 mph. It’s expected to trek northwestward later today and continue in that direction for the next few days. The tropical depression should reach Jamaica Monday night and be near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday. It will approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Location: About 175 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica, and 395 miles southeast of the Grand Cayman Islands
Maximum sustained winds: 45 mph
Present movement: North (10 degrees) at 9 mph
Minimum central pressure: 997 MB, 29.44 inches

Will we see Hurricane Rafael?

Meteorologists anticipate that Tropical Storm Rafael will strengthen into a hurricane by Tuesday afternoon after it passes Jamaica. From there, Hurricane Rafael will continue its trek northwest, where it’s expected to cross over the western tip of Cuba and continue pressing toward the U.S. Gulf Coast.

Will Tropical Storm Rafael impact Florida?

Tropical Storm Rafael is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico this week, but several factors make it difficult to determine a long-range forecast track or intensity.

Most Rafael spaghetti models place the storm tracking over the central Gulf Coast, making landfall anywhere from Louisiana to Mobile, Alabama. Depending on the storm’s intensity at landfall, any of those spots could have potential impacts in the western tip of Florida’s Panhandle.

Hurricane Ivan made landfall near Gulf Shores, Alabama, exactly 20 years ago as a Category 3 storm and caused major structural damage as far as Okaloosa County. Hurricane Katrina made landfall as a Category 3 hurricane in southeast Louisiana, which still caused flooding and structural damage in downtown Pensacola and Pensacola Beach.

Rafael is expected to be a less intense hurricane or tropical storm, but residents should remain vigilant.

Tropical Depression 18 eye path as of 10 a.m. Monday.

An unexpected hook isn’t out of the question either, however.

“The future track will depend on the movement of a dip in the jet stream more than 1,000 miles away over the U.S. next week,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.

“If that jet stream dip pushes far enough to the east, it will tend to scoop up the tropical feature and possibly draw it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into South Florida,” Rayno explained. “But, if the jet stream dip lags to the west, the tropical feature may push into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far to the west as Louisiana or Texas. There’s also the possibility it continues due westward and diminishes over southern Mexico.”

Where would Rafael go if it makes landfall in the US?

A central Gulf Coast landfall would likely mean more rain for the eastern U.S. toward the middle of November, says AccuWeather. Tropical rains would bring a higher risk of flash flooding, but would also bring rain to areas currently seeing abnormally dry drought conditions.

“A track into South Florida would translate to little or no rain over the mainland of the Southeast states, but a track more along the central Gulf coast would allow the potential for rain to push well to the north,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said.

Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.

What happened to Tropical Storm Patty?

Another tropical disturbance in the North Atlantic swooped in and snatched the name “Patty” from Tropical Storm Rafael over the weekend before it quickly fizzled out.

Tropical Storm Rafael Jamaica, Cuba impacts

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands by Tuesday afternoon and are possible in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica by late tonight and are possible in central Cuba, and in the lower and middle Florida Keys on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean with the heaviest rainfall occurring over Jamaica and portions of Cuba through mid-week. Rainfall totals between 3 to 6 inches with locally up to 9 inches are expected. Flooding and mudslides could occur over portions of Jamaica and Cuba.Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the Southeast United States mid to late week.

STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. Storm surge could raise water levels by 1-3 feet above normal tide levels in the Cayman Islands on Tuesday, and could raise water levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:

SURF: Swells generated by the system are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please consult products from your local weather office.