After Oscar leaves Cuba and the Bahamas, it will transition to a tropical wind and rainstorm near Bermuda. Then, AccuWeather meteorologists say, eyes will turn to the Caribbean once again for the chance of a new tropical threat next week.
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Compared to some other tropical storms and hurricanes this season, Oscar, currently a tropical storm, is small in size. Tropical-storm-force winds of 39 mph or greater extend out from the center by less than 50 miles as of Monday morning.
However, its slow movement from this weekend to the start of the week has likely unloaded torrential rainfall and triggered flash flooding on eastern Cuba.
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As Oscar begins to move north-northeastward into Tuesday, its rain and wind will affect part of the southwestern Bahamas. Seas and surf will be rough and dangerous for a time. Enough rain will fall to lead to localized flooding in urban areas.
“Oscar will be picked up by a non-tropical feature and later absorbed by the same feature over the western Atlantic,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
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Oscar’s forward speed will increase substantially as it grows in size. As the storm accelerates, it may strengthen while transitioning away from a full-blown tropical storm and become a large gale center.
Mariners commonly use the Beaufort Wind Scale. A gale center, in this case, is an ocean storm that produces sustained winds of 39-54 mph and can produce much higher gusts.
AccuWeather will continue to reference it as Tropical Wind and Rainstorm Oscar to raise awareness of the risk to lives and property as it passes near Bermuda at midweek then perhaps over part of Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada, on Thursday. AccuWeather dubbed Oscar and Nadine tropical rainstorms days in advance of the official names given by the National Hurricane Center.
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Oscar could bring 60-mph wind gusts and enough rain to trigger urban flooding in Bermuda in the middle of the week. Until it moves off to the north later in the week, this should concern operators of small craft and even larger vessels as seas will build quickly and significantly as Oscar approaches.
Bermuda captures a large portion of the rainwater that falls and stores it for future use. However, rainfall has not been in short supply since May, with about 35 inches falling compared to a historical average of 25 inches or so.
Oscar will likely not mark an end to tropical activity in the southwestern Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean Sea.
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“We suspect there will be another attempt for a tropical depression or tropical storm to brew in the western Caribbean during the middle to the latter part of next week,” Rayno said, “As a result, we have issued an advanced risk development zone.”
While Gulf water temperatures have trended back to near average, waters remain quite warm over the Caribbean, and deep ocean warmth over the prime development area of the Atlantic remains well above the historical average.
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“Indications are that disruptive winds (wind shear) will remain low into next week over the western Caribbean,” Rayno added.
A large storm or gyre may again form near the western Caribbean, which, when factoring in warm waters and low wind shear, could foster new but slow development. Both Oscar and Nadine struggled for days to evolve fully into tropical storms until the very last minute.
After Oscar, the next name on the list of tropical storms for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Patty.
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The track of any new tropical feature in the Caribbean will depend on exactly where it forms and the overall strength and movement of non-tropical features farther to the north over the United States and the western Atlantic.
From a climatological standpoint, tropical storms that form in this area late in October and early in November tend to track into Central America or possibly to the north-northeast toward Cuba, Hispaniola and the Bahamas.
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