An attack on China’s consulate in Myanmar’s second-largest city Mandalay highlights the challenges Beijing faces in the war-torn country, as it tries to find a balance between the ruling junta and armed opposition, observers say.
No casualties were reported after an explosive device was detonated on October 18, damaging the two-storey Chinese consulate in central Mandalay, according to China’s foreign ministry.
Analysts say the blast has again raised doubt over whether the military government can protect Chinese interests and assets amid an increasingly violent civil war, ahead of a reported China visit by junta chief Min Aung Hlaing next month.
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Beijing, which is a major ally and arms supplier of Myanmar‘s military while maintaining close contact with rebel groups near its border, condemned the attack and lodged a “serious protest” with the junta.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian on Monday called on Myanmar to “get to the bottom of the incident, make an all-out effort to hunt down the perpetrators and bring them to justice in accordance with the law … and prevent similar incidents from happening again”.
Details of the attack are sketchy and it remains unclear who was responsible. The junta blamed “terrorists” in a statement on Saturday and said it was investigating in cooperation with consulate officials.
According to The Irrawaddy news portal, a loud explosion was heard when the street-side building was hit by a hand grenade, damaging its roof.
Jason Tower, a Myanmar expert at the United States Institute of Peace, said the attack demonstrated “the continued failure of the Myanmar military regime to provide even the most basic level of security to the interests and assets of its most critical external supporter”.
“Such failures on the part of the junta are common … making very clear the limits of the junta’s ability to secure vital infrastructure, such as the China-Myanmar pipeline project, or Chinese factories in Yangon,” he said, noting there had been at least four attacks on China-backed infrastructure projects, businesses or other assets since a military coup in 2021.
Analysts said the attack came at a “sensitive time”, as Beijing has bolstered its support for the internationally isolated junta since the rebels in early August captured Lashio, the military regime’s northeastern command and the capital of northern Shan State bordering the Chinese province of Yunnan.
Soon after the rebel’s “watershed” victory, China’s top diplomat Wang Yi met Min Aung Hlaing during a rare trip to Myanmar in August, a move widely perceived as signalling Beijing’s support for the junta without officially recognising it.
Foreign Minister Wang expressed concern over the situation in Myanmar, once a key part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, and renewed mediation efforts to push for talks to end hostilities near China’s border.
China’s top diplomat Wang Yi meets Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw on August 14. Photo: AFP/Myanmar Military Information Team alt=China’s top diplomat Wang Yi meets Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw on August 14. Photo: AFP/Myanmar Military Information Team>
Amara Thiha, a Myanmar researcher at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, said the fact that the perpetrators of the attack had not been identified underlined the broader security challenges in Mandalay and beyond.
He said the pro-democracy resistance and the shadow National Unity Government had in the past frequently planned attacks on military installations in Mandalay.
“While the NUG has denied involvement in the recent attack, it is possible that unaffiliated or rogue groups carried out the incident,” he said, adding that Mandalay was likely targeted due to its relatively weaker security measures compared to commercial hub Yangon.
He said the consulate attack may have been influenced by recent media reports in Myanmar suggesting Beijing’s growing alignment with the junta.
“These perceptions, whether accurate or not, could have motivated the attackers or shaped their intent,” Thiha said.
“While this incident may not have an immediate or lasting impact on China’s ties with the junta, it highlights the precarious situation Beijing faces. China’s role in Myanmar remains crucial, but any perception of overt alignment with the junta may provoke further unrest, potentially making Beijing’s position even more delicate in the ongoing conflict.”
But Zachary Abuza, a Southeast Asia expert and professor at the National War College in Washington, said it was unlikely that this attack was perpetrated by the armed opposition, which had “gone out of its way to protect Chinese economic and commercial interests”.
“It’s far more likely that this was a false flag operation perpetrated by the military, which wants to label the armed opposition as ‘terrorists’. The junta needs Chinese military, economic and political support more than ever, and they have to portray the NUG, and allied ethnic armed organisations … as fundamentally hostile to China’s interests in the country,” he said.
Observers agreed that the timing of the attack could potentially be linked to the junta chief’s planned visit to China next month, first reported by The Irrawaddy, and the armed rebels’ recent progress on the battlefield.
If confirmed, it would be Min Aung Hlaing’s first official visit to China since the coup, prompting speculation that Beijing could have had a change of heart over whether to officially recognise the junta.
But Thiha said the visit could reflect a shift in the junta’s approach – despite its distrust over Beijing’s interference – rather than a Chinese policy change.
“It does not signal a shift in Beijing’s policy,” he said. “For China, the priority appears to be maintaining stability and ensuring that the central administration does not disintegrate, rather than outright support for the junta.”
Members of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army gather inside a captured military base in Hsipaw on October 15. Photo: AFP alt=Members of the Ta’ang National Liberation Army gather inside a captured military base in Hsipaw on October 15. Photo: AFP>
Thiha noted that armed rebel group the Ta’ang National Liberation Army seized the small town and military base of Hsipaw early this month – located between Mandalay and Yunnan – stoking tensions near the Chinese border.
He said that signalled growing strength among ethnic armed groups, potentially complicating Beijing’s balancing act between maintaining ties with the junta and managing relations with the armed opposition.
Abuza agreed. “And as a reminder, China does not like Min Aung Hlaing. They view him as totally incompetent and unable to protect Chinese interests, despite Chinese economic, diplomatic and military assistance,” he said.
However, according to Abuza, Beijing fears the military being defeated in Myanmar and considers a strong central government is needed to avoid a worsening of the conflict.
“That’s why they are pushing for ‘elections’ [proposed by the junta] as an off-ramp to the current situation, but one that will give the military a seat in a future government,” he said.
Tower said the attack would overshadow a Min Aung Hlaing trip to China, noting that Beijing had rejected the junta chief’s previous requests for an official visit, including to attend the belt and road summit in September.
“This incident, coupled with major losses experienced in both Kachin and Shan State over the past two weeks, is almost certain to further weaken Chinese confidence in Min Aung Hlaing’s abilities to turn things around on the battlefield,” he said.
Tower said the attack should be cause for Beijing to rethink its approach of applying pressure on armed rebel groups to abandon newly captured territories and to stop efforts to liberate major townships.
“Given that the military has such limited ability to protect critical Chinese assets in Myanmar, it is almost a certainty that China will need to depend more and more on ethnic armed organisations and even the NUG to secure its interests,” he said. “If China continues to bully and pressure these important security partners, it is likely that it will become increasingly difficult for them to play such a role, especially as popular anti-China sentiment rises.”
According to Tower, Min Aung Hlaing’s visit is “almost certain” to focus on the security situation in Myanmar, including recent battlefield losses in Kachin and Northern Shan, as “part of a request for stronger Chinese support for his increasingly feeble regime”.
“For its part, China is likely to push Min Aung Hlaing to give greater assurances vis-a-vis China’s assets and investments in the country and is also likely to push the general on his plans for achieving what the Chinese refer to as a ‘soft landing’,” he said.
Myanmar features prominently in Beijing’s regional strategy, particularly given that it represents the only source of pipeline oil and gas to China’s southwest.
“China aims to establish dominance in the Indian Ocean region by harnessing Myanmar’s economy to that of Yunnan’s,” he said. “It has also sent recent signals of a preference for integrating Myanmar into Chinese dominated multilateral platforms that could compete with Asean centrality vis-a-vis Myanmar.”
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