Hurricane Rafael could juice storm system, bring 10 inches of rain to North Florida

As Hurricane Rafael plows through the Caribbean into Cuba, forecasters say parts of north Florida could see “non-direct impacts,” including localized flooding, hazardous boating, rip currents, high surf – and up to 10 inches of rain.

Heavy rain is forecast tonight and into Thursday across the Southeast and Florida Panhandle as the result of an interaction between a trough over the region and a broad area of disturbed weather across the tropics that includes the newly-minted Category 3 hurricane, said Marc Chenard, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center. The hurricane is expected to fuel the system with more moisture from the tropics.

The potential exists for 4-8 inches of rain, with up to 10 inches of rain in isolated locations across the Florida Panhandle, and potentially more than 8 inches of rain in locations extending northeastward into the South Carolina Low Country overnight Wednesday and into Thursday, according to the center’s latest excessive rainfall outlook.

The Tallahassee chapter of the National Weather Service, however, said the most likely rainfall totals will be around 2 to 4 inches, with “an increasing chance of seeing 6-10 inches along I-75 into northern Jefferson and Madison Counties.”

The upshot: “Heavy rainfall & localized flooding can be expected over the next couple of days,” and “hazardous marine and beach conditions will continue through the week.”

Rafael currently has maximum sustained winds near 115 mph with higher gusts, hurricane forecasters said. The storm made landfall in Cuba at about 4:30 p.m. The hurricane is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.

After that, there’s some “wiggle room” on where Rafael will go next, with AccuWeather forecasters putting the highest probability of landfall along the central Louisiana coast.

“The good news is that while the Rafael may well enter the Gulf as a hurricane mid-week, there is very little chance of the storm reaching land as a hurricane,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist with WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

USA TODAY contributed to this story

This article originally appeared on Tallahassee Democrat: Hurricane Rafael may bring rain, floods to north Florida, Tallahassee