A Hurricane Hunter aircraft was expected to be sent to the western Caribbean on Sunday, forecasters said their early-morning Tropical Weather Outlook, to get data on Invest 97L, which has been watched for days.
National Hurricane Center forecasters believe the storm is highly likely to form within the next 48 hours.
NHC forecasters say there’s a 80% chance Invest 97L will develop in the next two days over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. A system farther east, near Puerto Rico, is moving eastward and could deliver thunderstorms over the Greater Antilles before being absorbed into Invest 97L.
AccuWeather forecasters said Sunday that a tropical storm is likely to develop by Monday.
Subtropical Storm Patty was quickly moving east toward the Azores on Sunday, which are not under Tropical Storm Warning. The center of Patty is expected to move near the southeastern Azores today.
There are no threats today to land on the U.S. mainland and hurricane strikes in November remain rare.
“Most reliable guidance suggests that western flank of that steering high pressure will still extend over the Gulf, keeping a potential storm moving west or northwestward into the southwestern Gulf of Mexico,” said Ryan Truchalat, forecaster-owner of Weathertiger, who provides reports for the USA TODAY Network.
“A minority of model ensemble members have a faster, stronger frontal passage, in which case a storm theoretically near the Yucatan or Cuba might then turn northeast towards Florida towards the end of next week or over the following weekend.”
➤ Weather alerts via text: Sign up to get updates about current storms and weather events by location
The next named storms are Rafael and Sara.
Will it be raining when I vote? Here’s Florida’s weather forecast for Election Day
Here are details about what’s out there as of 5 a.m. Nov. 3:
Where is Subtropical Storm Patty? Is a hurricane heading toward Florida?
Location: 37.5N, 25.5W about 125 miles southeast of Lajes Air Base, Azores
Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph
Present movement: East at 18 mph
Minimum central pressure: 990 MB
The center of Subtropical Storm Patty was located near latitude 37.5 North, longitude 25.5 West. The storm is moving toward the east near 18 mph, and an eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days.
On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to move near the southeastern Azores during the next several hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or early Monday.
Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 175 miles, mainly to the south and southwest of the center.
Hazards affecting land:
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the Azores today.
RAINFALL: Patty is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches across the Azores through Sunday.
SURF: Swells generated by Patty will affect the Azores over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Conditions for tropical development close to Florida. Will Invest 97L become Tropical Storm Raphael?
Accuweather
Embedded content: https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Rainstorm-track-11.2pm.jpg?w=632
The Caribbean waters are warm enough for tropical development, even this late in the season. But it’s the wind shear, or disruptive breezes, forecasters say they’re watching to determine what’s next. AccuWeather is calling for a tropical storm to form by Monday night.
“The brewing tropical storm is expected to make a northeastward turn across Jamaica and Cuba next week, bringing heavy downpours and gusty winds to those islands. It is not out of the question it becomes a hurricane in the Caribbean prior to reaching Jamaica or Cuba,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Alan Reppert said.
There are a couple of options on the table for the path of the brewing tropical storm.
“The future track will depend on the movement of a dip in the jet stream more than 1,000 miles away over the U.S. next week,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said.
“If that jet stream dip pushes far enough to the east, it will tend to scoop up the tropical feature and possibly draw it across the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and into South Florida,” Rayno explained. “But, if the jet stream dip lags to the west, the tropical feature may push into the western or central Gulf of Mexico, where it could threaten areas as far to the west as Louisiana or Texas. There’s also the possibility it continues due westward and diminishes over southern Mexico.”
Invest 97L spaghetti models
The status of Invest 97L Caribbean
Invest 97L in Southwestern Caribbean Sea: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are associated with a broad area of low pressure.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today.
-
Formation chance through 48 hours: high, 80 percent.
-
Formation chance through 7 days: high, 90 percent.
What else is out there and how likely are they to strengthen?
Near the Greater Antilles: A trough of low pressure a couple hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic.
Slow development of this system is possible during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be absorbed into the Invest 97L over the Caribbean Sea by late Monday, ending its chances of development.
-
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 10 percent.
-
Formation chance through 7 days: low, 10 percent.
Who is likely to be impacted?
Accuweather
Embedded content: https://cms.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/Rainstorm-Risk-Caribbean-11.2-pm.jpg?w=632
Forecaster say 1-2 inches of rain is expected to occur across Jamaica northward into Cuba. Heavier rain of 4-8 inches can occur close to the track of the storm over western Cuba and central Jamaica with an AccuWeather high of 14 inches in the highest terrain.
“This rain can lead to flash flooding, landslides and difficult travel in parts of Jamaica and Cuba,” Reppert said.
As the tropical storm moves northward and gains strength, wind gusts will increase, with 40 to 60 mph gusts forecast.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
Stay informed. Get weather alerts via text
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The Atlantic basin includes the northern Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico.
Countdown clock: When will hurricane season end?
Interactive map: Hurricanes, tropical storms that have passed near your city
What’s next?
We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. Download your local site’s app to ensure you’re always connected to the news. And look for our special subscription offers here.
(This story has been updated to add new information.)
This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Hurricane Center Invest 97L update, track path and spaghetti models
Leave a Comment