Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris remain in a razor-thin race to claim up-for-grabs swing states that could solidify an Electoral College victory, new polls released by UMass Lowell / YouGov show.
In the final days of the election, battleground states like North Carolina, Michigan and New Hampshire remain tightly contested for both candidates as they make their final pitches to voters ahead of Nov. 5. Polls in not only those swing states, but across the nation, continue to forecast a tight race for the White House.
As the nail-biter of a race approaches its conclusion in five days, Trump and Harris plan to both address supporters Thursday in Nevada, another key swing state.
Here’s what to know about the latest polls:
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Trump leads Harris in North Carolina
Trump is leading Harris by two percentage points in a new poll by UMass Lowell/YouGov released Thursday.
The poll of 650 likely voters showed Trump leading Harris 47% to 45% in the final days of the 2024 election. The poll, conducted Oct. 16-23, had a margin of error of 4.2 percentage points.
In a concerning sign for the vice president, 74% of those surveyed in the state reported feeling that the country has been on the wrong track, while 57% either somewhat or strongly disapproved of Joe Biden’s job as president.
As in many polls, the majority of respondents (49%) give Trump the edge when asked who they think is best positioned to handle the economy. Most respondents also said Trump would be the best to handle the conflict in the Middle East (48%) and immigration (52%.)
However, mirroring other national trends, Harris was given the edge from respondents on abortion (50%.)
Harris was also perceived by those polled as being more trustworthy (45%) and more likely to uphold the law (46%,) while Trump was perceived by 48% of those polled as more corrupt than his opponent.
Harris leads Trump in Michigan
In Michigan, Harris holds a slight 4-point lead over Trump, according to the latest UMass poll.
The survey of 600 likely voters showed Harris leading Trump 49%-45%. Conducted Oct. 16-24, the poll had a margin of error of 4.49 percentage points.
But while Harris maintains the lead, 66% of those surveyed said the country is on the wrong track – a worrying sign for the vice president.
Trump was slightly more favored than Harris when respondents were asked who would best handle the economy, 46%-45%, respectively.
Other findings:
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56% somewhat or strongly dissaprove of Biden;
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46% said Trump was best to handle the Middle East conflicts;
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57% gave the edge to Harris on handling abortion;
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49% said Harris is more trustworthy, while 52% said Trump is more corrupt of the two.
Harris with slim lead in Pennsylvania
The UMass poll showed Harris with a slim one-percentage-point lead over Trump in the key state of Pennsylvania.
The survey of 800 likely voters was conducted Oct. 16-23, showing Harris leading Trump 48%-47%. The lead was well within the poll’s margin of error (3.73 percentage points).
Respondents favored Trump when it came to which candidate would better handle the economy (50% to 44%) as well as the handling the Israel-Hamas war (47%-39%).
Harris slightly ahead in New Hampshire
Harris’ lead in New Hampshire is slightly higher, at seven percentage points, UMass found.
The survey of 600 likely voters Harris showed Harris ahead 50%-43%, with a margin of error of 4.38 percentage points. The poll was conducted Oct. 16-23.
In a shift from other polls, the majority of people surveyed, 47%, slightly favored Harris in handling the economy. However, more respondents still gave Trump the edge in the handling of the Middle East conflict (44%) and immigration (44%).
The poll also found:
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72% of respondents believe the country is headed in the wrong direction;
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56% somewhat or strongly dissaprove of Biden;
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57% believe Harris would better handle the issue of abortion;
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53% said Harris is more trustworthy and 54% Trump is more corrupt.
Things to keep in mind about polling
The margin of error describes how accurately we can count on the survey results being representative of the entire population.
When a candidate’s lead is “inside” the margin of error, it is considered a “statistical tie,” according to Pew Research Center.
Pew has also found the majority of pollsters have changed their methods since the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, where Trump’s performance was significantly underestimated.
Eric Lagatta covers breaking and trending news for USA TODAY. Reach him at elagatta@gannett.com
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: New presidential election polls released in Pennsylvania, Michigan, NC
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