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NHC tracking system with potential to form over Halloween weekend — plus, 3 more waves

Updated: 28-10-2024, 03.38 PM

The tropics saw a brief lull last week after Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton wreaked havoc on the southeastern United States, followed by Hurricane Oscar’s path of destruction across parts of the Caribbean.

However, the National Hurricane Center is now monitoring four tropical waves — one of which shows potential for development over the holiday weekend.

“We are tired because the 2024 hurricane season punched us harder than any in a generation,” WeatherTiger chief meteorologist Ryan Truchelut told USA TODAY.

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Tropical Storm Patty? Tropical system has 40% chance of formation

The National Hurricane Center said Monday a broad area of low pressure is likely to develop in the Caribbean Sea later this week.

AccuWeather forecasters, who began sounding the alarm last week, warn of a chance for a tropical depression or storm to form in the western Caribbean between Oct. 31 and Nov. 4. While the system currently has a zero chance of development within the next 48 hours, that probability rises to 40% over the next seven days.

A broad area of low pressure is likely to develop over the southwestern Caribbean Sea in a few days,” according to the latest advisory. “Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while the system begins to drift northward or northeastward over the southwestern and central Caribbean Sea.”

The National Hurricane Center is watching four tropical waves:

Southwestern Caribbean: Another tropical wave has reached the Caribbean plains of Nicaragua, along 84W, south of 18N.
Eastern Atlantic: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 35W, south of 15N, moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
East of Leeward Islands: A tropical wave along 52W, south of 17N is moving westward at 11 to 17 mph.
Eastern Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean along 68W, extending south into western Venezuela.

The next named storms of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season will be Patty and Rafael.

How many storms have been recorded in the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season?

Early-season forecasts had warned of an especially active season, predicting 17 to 24 named storms, with eight to 13 potentially becoming hurricanes.

So far, the 2024 season has produced 15 named storms, 10 of which developed into hurricanes, including four major hurricanes at Category 3 or greater.