Just as the war in Gaza is expanding, with Israel now in direct conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon and Iran, so too is the war in Ukraine. To be clear, ever since Russia launched its all-out invasion of Ukraine over two and a half years ago, involvement in that war has not been limited to the two primary belligerents. The United States and its NATO allies have been staunch supporters of Kyiv. Their supplies of everything from weapons and financing to targeting intelligence and training have made the Western powers co-belligerents in the conflict.
This article may contain affiliate links that Yahoo and/or the publisher may receive a commission from if you buy a product or service through those links.
For its part, Russia’s war effort has also been directly enabled by several countries, including diplomatic, economic and material support from members of the BRICS grouping, as well as missiles and drones supplied by Iran and munitions by North Korea.
But the nature of Moscow’s external support changed this past week, when it was confirmed by U.S. and European intelligence sources that Pyongyang has sent approximately 10,000 North Korean troops to train in Russia. In all likelihood, they will soon be deployed to fight in Russia’s Kursk region to help the Russian military drive back the offensive into Russian territory that Ukraine launched there in August.
To get more in-depth news and expert analysis on global affairs from WPR, sign up for our free Daily Review newsletter.
The significance of this development cannot be overstated. Consider the responses to North Korea’s move by officials in Washington, Ukraine’s key supporter. U.S. President Joe Biden warned North Korea against allowing those troops to enter Ukraine itself, making it clear they would be a target for Ukrainian strikes if they did. Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, is reportedly working the diplomatic channels with China, a key supporter of North Korea, to persuade Beijing to constrain Pyongyang’s use of its troops against Ukraine. And some members of the U.S. Congress have gone so far as to label the use of North Korean troops against Ukraine a “red line” that should prompt direct military action by the U.S. itself. That is unlikely, but it still points to the gravity of the situation from the U.S. perspective.
What is the basis for their concern? Why exactly does it matter that North Korea is sending troops to Russia to help it counter Ukraine? There are three key reasons.
First and foremost, this provides a much-needed infusion of manpower into the Russian war effort. Though the numbers favor Russia when it comes to overall force size and demographics compared to Ukraine, it has proven challenging for Russia to maintain a steady rotation of troops into combat. The current recruitment numbers are at best adequate for replacement level. Russian President Vladimir Putin has at least twice implemented a partial mobilization. Russia has also relied on manpower provided by the Wagner quasi-mercenary group, though its reliance on those fighters almost undermined the Putin regime. Moscow has also recruited mercenaries from Syria and other regions where Russian forces had been engaged in combat, as well as among U.S.-trained Afghan forces after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan following the U.S. military withdrawal.
But North Korea offers a large reservoir of trained military personnel. Indeed, while exact figures are always difficult to obtain with North Korea, the country is estimated to have one of the largest militaries in the world, with well over 1 million active personnel.
While the presence of North Korean troops in Ukraine could alter that specific war’s dynamics, it points to a more worrying possibility: general war.
Second, as a state that has been isolated from most of the world for decades, North Korea sees the war in Ukraine as an opportunity to play a role in global politics. Pyongyang has a propensity to take actions, such as intermittent rocket launches, aimed at reminding the West—and specifically the U.S.—that it should not be be ignored. But those actions have long seen as tantrums for attention, not moves with tangible consequences. This time is different.
As noted, North Korea was already supplying munitions and rockets to Russia, and the two states signed a mutual defense treaty back in June. At the time, however, the aim of the treaty remained unclear. Its vague wording meant that understanding its true intentions would ultimately come down to the actual behavior of the parties.
But just as Moscow’s “no-limits” agreement with Beijing announced in the weeks prior to the invasion of Ukraine portended tacit and, in many ways, explicit and direct support by China of Russia’s war effort, so too has it become clear that the June agreement with North Korea signaled more than just empty words. The two sides now have skin in the game.
Third, while the presence of North Korean troops in Ukraine could alter that specific war’s dynamics, it points to a more worrying possibility: general war. As the international relations scholar Hal Brands wrote earlier this year, World War II did not start as a single global conflict. Instead, it resulted from the gradual merging of separate regional conflicts. What could have remained a world of wars, with conflict raging in China and then Europe, eventually merged into a single globe-spanning world war.
We are in a similar world today, one that is threatening to consume large portions of Eurasia. In addition to North Korea’s troop deployment to Russia, Israel’s recent strikes against Iran destroyed Iranian facilities producing missiles for Russia. Even before Israel’s attack, Russia and Iran were poised to sign their own mutual security pact. Could this lead Russia to deepen its ties with Iran, bringing Moscow more directly into the conflict in the Middle East? These are real dangers, often portended by the hardening and consolidating of alliance relations. To be clear, the risk of global general war remains low. But North Korea’s actions show how that risk is rising.
Notably, there is an obvious common element linking these conflicts: Russia. Security issues on either end of Eurasia are inevitably connected, but that is especially the case when Russia is involved in them. As I wrote recently, how best to relate to Russia is an issue that has long vexed Western governments. Russia in turn has long been vexed by how to relate to the West. From World Wars I and II and the Cold War to the conflicts raging in Eurasia today, the consequences of both sides’ inability to get along is not limited to just the West’s relations with Russia. They are global.
Paul Poast is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at the University of Chicago and a nonresident fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
The post Russia’s North Korea Gambit Could Make the War in Ukraine Go Global appeared first on World Politics Review.
Leave a Comment