LANSING, Mich. (WLNS) — Last Thursday the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center released its winter outlook for the upcoming 2024 to 2025 season.
This outlook is for December of this year through February of 2025 and contains information on likely conditions throughout the country for temperature, precipitation and drought.
According to NOAA these outlooks provide the likelihood that temperatures and precipitation amounts will be above, near, or below average. The outlook doesn’t project seasonal snowfall accumulations.
NOAA’s seasonal outlook expects warmer than average temperatures from Southern U.S. to the Eastern Great Lakes into the Eastern Seaboard. With below average temperatures expected into the Pacific Northwest into the Plains.
Looking at the precipitation side of things, wetter than average conditions are above normal across the Great Lakes and are strongest in portions of Northern Indiana and even into Ohio. Drier than average conditions into Texas and Southern New Mexico.
The big unknown factor in this outlook is whether La Niña sets up for the remainder of the fall and into the winter. Since last winter we have been in an El Niño pattern which occurs when we have warmer than average sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Which is also why we saw a warmer than average winter last year with drier conditions.
The Climate Prediction Center says quote “that a slowly developing La Nina is favored to influence conditions for the upcoming winter across most of the country”. What does that mean for us? Well, La Niña is when there is cooler than normal ocean temperatures in the Pacific that has a ripple effect on our jet streams allowing a cooler polar jet stream to set up further north and a sub-tropical jet stream to set up further south than usual. This type of pattern is known for bringing cooler and wetter conditions to the Great Lakes region.
Forecasters at NOAA say that this year’s La Niña is expected to be weaker and shorter in duration compared to prior years which is making it so hard to predict months in advance.
The takeaway from this outlook for the Great Lakes region, be prepared for wetter than average conditions with temperatures staying near average. Remember that these types of outlooks are just broad generalizations of what we could see in the coming months and does not mean that we will see above average snowfall for this year.
Seasonal Outlooks from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center help communities prepare for what is likely to come in the months ahead and try to minimize the weather’s impacts on lives and livelihoods across the country. The next update of the three-month outlook will be in mid-November.
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