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When does winter start? Here’s what NOAA, AccuWeather, Farmer’s Almanac say to expect

Updated: 23-10-2024, 06.03 AM

We could be looking at a “calmer, gentler” winter across most of the country, according to the Farmer’s Almanac. But Florida can expect it to be a wet one.

“We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter — potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.” Carol Connare, the Almanac’s editor-in-chief, said in the seasonal forecast.

However, “winter will be cooler than usual for the most part” in Florida, the Almanac’s forecast said. “February is expected to be 3°F above average, with near-average temperatures for the rest of the season.” And rainfall is expected to be slightly above normal across the state.

The Old Farmer's Almanac has released its weather predictions for winter 2024.The Old Farmer's Almanac has released its weather predictions for winter 2024.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac has released its weather predictions for winter 2024.

AccuWeather also predicts a (mostly) mild winter

“As people prepare their skis and snowblowers with snow on their minds, AccuWeather forecasters predict that the season will be mild for most of the United States, similar to last winter, which was the warmest on record,” Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist, said. “However, that is only part of the story, as waves of frigid air will periodically send freezing air across the country, along with more chances for snow.”

La Niña, a natural climate pattern that influences weather, is expected to be weak for most of the winter, which allows for more variability, and the warmer-than-usual waters of the Gulf of Mexico that have been contributing to the powerful hurricanes hitting our state this season may mean milder air masses for the central and eastern U.S.

We could see blasts of cold weather in February if the polar vortex slams the eastern U.S. as it has in previous years, but nothing is certain at this point, AccuWeather said.

NOAA calls for warmer and drier South, wetter North

Don’t rely on that forecasted rain, though. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its winter forecast last week and predicted that the Southeast and Gulf Coast may see drier-than-average conditions with warmer-than-usual temps across much of the country.

“The greatest likelihood for drier-than-average conditions are in states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as in Texas and southern New Mexico,” NOAA said, which also attributed the conditions to a weak La Niña.

“La Niña conditions are expected to develop later this fall and typically lead to a more northerly storm track during the winter months, leaving the southern tier of the country warmer and drier,” the NOAA said.

NOAA's seasonal precipitation outlook map for winter 2024-2025.NOAA's seasonal precipitation outlook map for winter 2024-2025.

NOAA’s seasonal precipitation outlook map for winter 2024-2025.

Biting or balmy? See NOAA’s 2024 winter weather forecast for where you live

When does winter start?

That depends.

Meteorological winter, which runs from December to February and defines the seasons we usually think of when we say spring, summer, fall and winter, begins Sunday, Dec. 1.

Astronomical winter begins on the winter solstice, which is the shortest day of the year when the North Pole is tilted away from the sun. This year that’s Saturday, Dec. 21, which will be 5:21 a.m. ET.

This article originally appeared on Fort Myers News-Press: Will winter in Florida be cold? Here’s forecasters’ predictions

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