Historian Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted nine of the last 10 presidential elections, said he still thinks Kamala Harris will beat Donald Trump but that he feels particularly nervous this year.
“I’ve been doing this for 42 years and every four years I have butterflies in my stomach,” he said. “This year, I think I have a flock of crows in my stomach.”
Lichtman said the candidates’ neck-and-neck polling in key swing states does not make him nervous. He trusts his “13 Keys to the White House” system and still believes Harris will become the country’s next president. However, in a live video interview with his son Sam on his YouTube channel, the presidential forecaster explained that he is worried about the fragility of democracy, noting that the political system has not actually been around for all that long.
“For the vast sweep of human history, there has been almost no democracy. Peoples were governed by the divine right of kings, by right of birth, or by the sword and blood,” he said. “Democracy is a very recent development.”
More: Historian who predicted 9 of the last 10 elections says 2024 pick set off ‘avalanche’
Both presidential campaigns have cast their rival as a “threat to democracy” during the 2024 cycle. Trump has called Harris a “communist” and Harris has called Trump a “fascist.” A Washington Post poll released in June showed more than 70% of Democrat and Republican voters saw threats to democracy in the U.S. as “extremely important.”
Who is Allan Lichtman?
Before receiving the title of “Distinguished Professor” from the American University in Washington, D.C., Lichtman, 77, earned a Ph.D. specializing in modern American history and quantitative methods at Harvard.
He is best known for helping establish the presidential prediction system that uses thirteen true-or-false statements. When five or less are false, the incumbent party candidate is expected to win. When six or more are false, the challenging party is expected to win.
This year, Lichtman said at least eight of the keys favor Harris.
Using this system, he correctly predicted the outcome of every election since 1984, except for the famously close race in 2000, in which Republican George W. Bush defeated Democrat Al Gore.
What are the 13 keys?
The keys and Lichtman’s assessment of each include:
◾ After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections. (False)
◾ There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination. (True)
◾The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president. (False)
◾ There is no significant third-party challenger. (True)
◾ The short-term economy is strong. (True)
◾ The long-term economic growth has been as good as the last two terms. (True)
◾ The White House party has made major changes to national policy. (True)
◾ There is not sustained social unrest during the term. (True)
◾ The White House administration and party is untainted by scandal (True)
◾ The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. (Leans False)
◾ The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (Leans True)
◾ The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. (False)
◾ The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. (True)
Reach Rachel Barber at rbarber@usatoday.com and follow her on X @rachelbarber_
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Why Allan Lichtman, election predictor extraordinaire is nervous
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